I have no doubt, that in another five years, nodes like
Drunk on golf: 99 Bottles of Beer
will have well over 100 votes.
How I wish that were true.
However, I believe your prediction is well wide of the mark.
This node currently has a reputation of 46 and I predict
it will be around 50 in five years time.
See you in five years to see who was right. :)
Update: Rep changes over time for node Drunk on golf: 99 Bottles of Beer:
- May 2011: Node created
- Sep 2011: 46
- Dec 2011: 49
- Nov 2012: 51
- Nov 2013: 53
- Nov 2014: 54
- Nov 2015: 54
- May 2016: 54
- Sep 2016: davies five year prediction period finishes!
- 12 Sep 2016: 54
- 14 Sep 2016: 67!!
- 27 Jan 2019: 72
- 04 Mar 2024: 72
The reason for the sudden jump from 54 to 67 was the kindness
of Monks who read Nostradamus Five Year Node Reputation Prophecy Expires Today!.
I've noticed that "blockbuster" nodes,
for example brian's Guide to Solving Any Perl Problem, tend to have
very broad appeal.
More specialized nodes, such as the code golf node you mentioned,
don't gather anywhere near as many votes
in my experience.
In terms of steadily gaining reputation over the years,
I've noticed that most of my high reputation nodes hardly move after the first year;
the only exceptions are "visually striking" obfus, such as Saturn and Spinning World, and nodes with very broad appeal,
such as On Interviewing and Interview Questions.
Update: Most nodes, even high reputation ones, are rarely seen after the first year. So the only nodes that steadily gain reputation, year after year, are those that are frequently cited -- for example, the XY Problem,
often cited when someone wants to do X yet asks about Y.
Update May 2016, 2019: XY Problem grew by 29 from 263 rep at the time of this node to 292 rep as at 21 May 2016, a growth rate of 6 XP per year (c.f. 99 bottles of beer: grew by 8, from 46 to 54, 1.6 XP per year). OTOH, the % growth rates are 29/263 = 11% vs 8/46 = 17%. 2019 update: XY Problem up to 300 at 27 Jan 2019, growing by only 3 XP per year 2016-2019.
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