Thanks for the reply.
Firstly, I am primarily concerned with the currency, as opposed to the equity, markets but I must say I disagree with your claim that "if you're serious about making money, just follow company/government decisions and the resulting market impact". Alas, if it was that easy, there would be no problem. We would all be rich.

Guys who make fundamental analysis profitable have a mass network of contacts within the handful of companies which they trade. Company reps visit with fund managers to attempt to persuade them, and thus a few other hundred sheep, to buy their stock. They have information that the stay-at-home trader doesn't have. I question the foundation of fundamental annalysis for anyone, but for guys without a wealth of contacts it is impossible. By the time the news comes out the moves have been made.

Though most monks don't have networks of contacts, we do have data. The internet has made data freely available. This is why statistics can be the only way for the small investor to trade.

People who believe every bit of market noise is reducible to a news snippet are, as Nassim Taleb would say, "fooled by randomness" - props to tphyahoo for giving this book a mention.