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Re: guessing next number on roulette wheel

by sk.kumar (Initiate)
on Sep 14, 2018 at 13:12 UTC ( #1222367=note: print w/replies, xml ) Need Help??


in reply to guessing next number on roulette wheel

Trying to frame the question again

I have a large data of random numbers from 00-99, suppose every 5 hours one more random number is added to the data pool,

I want to write a perl programme, which can analyze the data, figure out the patterns(may involve one or many algorithms) in the data, and try to predict what will be the next number which will be added to data pool(the predicted number can be 1 or a set of numbers)

example:
88 11 36 43 90 66 48 19 77 04 90 91 47 62 97 10 12 84 82 88 25 28 ??

Replies are listed 'Best First'.
Re^2: guessing next number on roulette wheel
by pryrt (Abbot) on Sep 14, 2018 at 13:37 UTC

    As has been suggested already++, rand is as good a starting point as any for guessing a random number. You could probably try a best-fit polynomial, though it's doubtful it would perform any better at guessing the next random number than rand() would. It really depends on how random it is.

    In the 90s, I would have said, "make an artificial neural network", and I guess nowadays, I would say the equivalent "machine learning"... but given that no one has broken the stock market with their hugely-above-average performing ANN/ML/AI systems, I doubt that'd have a much higher success rate than rand().

    If it's a computer-generated random number (PRNG) to begin with, you could try to reverse engineer whatever PRNG is being used to by the "roulette" wheel, but with all the various manipulate-and-mod methods, with their huge numbers of possible state values, make that a daunting perspective. (If you know which implementation of their rand() function, you'd have a better chance of brute-forcing the state, especially if it's a smaller number of bits in their algorithm.)

    If it's something more truly random (ie, a non-rigged physical process), then all bets are off, and rand() is as good as you're likely to get. If it is rigged, then you've got a better chance, and doing best fits, or other statisitical analysis, would be a good starting point.

    Oh, I seee that Happy-the-monk mentioned rigged roulette wheels while I was writing this up, and hdb suggested some statistical packages to use to analyze data. That makes my post all-but-superfluous, but it will still be posted due to sunk costs. :-)

Re^2: guessing next number on roulette wheel
by LanX (Sage) on Sep 14, 2018 at 13:24 UTC
    Either you can give us a hint what you think the next number is or you are expecting Perl to be more intelligent than you are.

    Cheers Rolf
    (addicted to the Perl Programming Language :)
    Wikisyntax for the Monastery FootballPerl is like chess, only without the dice

Re^2: guessing next number on roulette wheel
by Anonymous Monk on Sep 14, 2018 at 14:04 UTC
    42

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