I cannot find a single correct statement in your post, even after careful testing of each point you make ... For example, if ($child) will likely be undef, so what?
At a minimum, the statement "upon failure to fork you'll get undef" is certainly correct, and fork certainly can fail. In your updated code you're still not checking for the definedness of $child. See also the various fork examples in perlfork and perlipc.
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Your post has grown from the first sentence, that's a significant update that has gone undeclared :)
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