So I'm going to take a crack at a *very* rough guess:

- ~17yrs == yrs since PM began
- ~70k == avg posts/yr
- ~44567 == post remaining to hit target
[download]

Given that, and the known decline in traffic over the last few years, I'll say we hit the target on August 19, 2018, which ironically, will be my 10th birthday here as a signed-up, non-lurking participant (I was a lurker for eight years or so).

For semi-reasonable statistical estimates, we need either someone who can really poll the DB to create a more accurate prediction, or BrowserUk, as I believe he can sit and figure this kind of stuff out in his head.

For the record: 2018-08-19

The number of days between the last 16 xxxx567 posts is: 14, 8,11,9,8,10,11,14,13,12,13,14,12,12,13, giving an average of 11.6 days per 1000 posts. With 38 more periods between now and 1234567, that gives 38 x 11.6 = 441 days for: Wednesday, 24 October 2018.

Given that most posts here are from USA, and that means evening GMT, I'll put 18:00 GMT as the time.

Well, after I whip up a scraper, I'd say ohhh 30 minutes or so ;)

On 13th December 2018 at 6.29am (UTC)

Is there a prize for the nearest guess?

Is there a prize for the nearest guess?

Yeah, there should be a prize. I'll buy the winner lunch .. if I can get to where you are. :)

Because

• Perlmonks is awesome.
• Perlmonks has made me a much better developer.
• I'm thrilled to be part of Perlmonks!
• Lunch is an important part of a day. So is beer.
• Perlmonks has a sense of humour.
• Life is short!

Alex / talexb / Toronto

Thanks PJ. We owe you so much. Groklaw -- RIP -- 2003 to 2013.

"I'll buy the winner lunch .. if I can get to where you are."

I think the cost of the fare¹ might be some orders of magnitude greater than the cost of the fare². :-)

1. Canada to Australia
2. Lunch

But, if you're in the vicinity ...

— Ken

Yeah, there should be a prize....snip...Because

Because, as the Dodo bird verdict goes, all must have prizes. It looks like someone hasn't read Alice lately. :)

This one!

Of course, just by asking the question, any prediction is now invalid. For example, this thread has added at least 10 new nodes, thus reducing the time to arrival of node 1234567.

Obviously any prediction would have to take that into account.

In fact, there could be a bit of gaming. If it looks like you've made a prediction earlier than the trend, you can always make some controversial post and stir up the lurkers to comment. Or just say "I think Joe's guess for next month was too pessimistic."

-QM
--
Quantum Mechanics: The dreams stuff is made of

Indeed. Set a date/time and then game the forum to make it fit the prediction. (It's the only way to go:))