I agree with the other responses: it depends; but I have a corollary that may be of help to you.

Do you enjoy the process of programming? Do you hanker to improve? Does it irritate you when you know that despite that your current code "works"; it's not quite right?

If you can answer yes to any one of those; you'll probably become proficient in a time that is closer to the lower estimates than the higher.

If you answered yes to two; stick with it, you have a good career ahead of you.

If you answer yes to all three -- honestly -- then work it; your abilities will (probably; provided you do not burn yourself out; many do) grow exponentially; and if you get the requisite piece of luck; good things are your destiny.

And if that last one sounds like a generic astrology prediction; you're not wrong. There is no predicting luck; but it is a requisite.