You seemed to have assumed that you've picked three key repos and that if some folk slowed commits to the main branches of these 3, then P6 dev was slowing and the missing contributors had slowed their contribution to P6. These assumptions are incorrect, as are others such as all commits and contributors being equal. Line count isn't going to be a better metric either. I recommend you visit the IRC channel #perl6 on freenode and ask questions; you'll get a much better picture of what's really going on.

At least 13 of the 14 folk you named remain active P6 contributors. (I'm excepting particle; he joined #moarvm a few weeks ago, but afaik he hasn't committed anything in a long while.) 11 of the 14 folk you named are highly active, currently contributing somehow near every day, 5 or more days a week, most for years. (The additional three exceptions are pmichaud, the P6 and Rakudo manager, who is occasionally committing and otherwise contributing but can't be said to be doing so most days; bacek, who contributes in fits and starts but hasn't done so for a few months afaik).

Of the top 50 contributors to the rakudo\rakudo repo, about 20 speak up on #perl6 pretty much every day and have landed commits to some P6 project repo (not just a personal P6 project) in 2013.

Of the bottom 50 rakudo\rakudo contributors, I recognize 15 of them as #perl 6 regulars in 2013, some making commits. (The numbers may well be higher than I recognize.)

The NQP repo includes several Parrot contributors (partly because NQP had a strong overlap with Parrot a few years ago) and Parrot dev has slowed tremendously. Even so, 26 of the 44 committers to the NQP repo since 2009 have NQP repo commits in 2013.

Ignoring whose contributing to what and how, Rakudo and NQP are both advancing rapidly, imo faster than in any previous period.

The main action in Rakudo/NQP land right now is getting the port to the JVM to the next level (ready for experiments with parallel processing, running on Android, etc.). I expect that to remain the focus in July, possibly August too. If you're trying to see where this Rakudo action is, follow branches in the Rakudo and NQP repos, or in forks folk have created, related to Rakudo/JVM. Note that since YAPC::NA, sorear, the creator of Niecza, has joined forces with jnthn on this port so now both of these two extraordinary hackers are working on Rakudo.

Others continue to work on the compiler ignoring the backend stuff. Watch the likes of timotimo, FROGGS, and newcomer ssutch.

Talking of timotimo and ssutch, note that these are both long time pythonistas that seems to have fallen in love with P6. It's interesting that the P6 project seems to be attracting contributors from outside the Perl world as much as from within. It's also interesting that ssutch was able to jump in to the compiler's guts and produce a working non-trivial patch in his first week of exposure to Perl 6.

Finally, MoarVM. The MoarVM repo was secret until 4 weeks ago. It has tripled the number of committers it has in 4 weeks, with several new contributors being well known uber hackers. (Chip Salzenberg has joined the channel!)

Here are the contributor graphs over time for the three repos you looked at: rakudo/rakudo, perl6/NQP, MoarVM/MoarVM. I agree they don't show a significant ramp up, but they don't show a significant ramp down either. The team is getting these pieces done, with or without help from others in the Perl community.

The above is focused on the three repos you picked. But there's lots more to P6 than those three repos. The module installer and ecosystem, key modules, testing components (including testsuite and japhb's workbench), rakudo debugger, Zavolaj FFI, documentation and so on are all important pieces. Check out the commits reported on #perl6; these are a good first approximation of the key P6 repos.

In summary, there have long been about 20-30 regulars, 50-70 occasionally returning irregulars, and a trickle of new folk, that are steadily building out Larry's vision.

Right now the vibe on #perl6 is very positive. The outlook for the rest of this year and 2014 is a joy to contemplate.

One last thing. Consider P5. I've heard that there are only 3 people in the world who deeply understand the guts of #p5p Perl 5: Nicholas Clark, Dave Mitchell, and Father Chrysostomos, and that they consider it a tough situation. Indeed, one of these three, Nicholas Clark, is now a regular on #perl6, and my understanding is that he sees P6 as being poised to deliver a technically excellent strategic way forward for P5 that sidesteps the deep problems of #p5p P5 without abandoning P5 (Pumpkin or otherwise). Talk of 25% improvement in the speed of the current p5 or Moose is easy; but just you wait until you dig in to the details...

Really, the best way to understand P6 is to visit the IRC channel #perl6 on freenode and hangout. Try it. I bet you'll like the folk even if you don't like the language!

I hadn't assumed a thing. I was pointed to those three repositories. A little earlier I was pointed to the repositories linked from the Perl6 module list. Both were supposed to prove that Perl6 is being actively developed (I never doubted that) and that there is a sizable community around it (which they did not). In summary, as you write, there had been 20-30 regulars, 50-70 occasionally returning irregulars (here I think you are exaggerating a little, yes occasionally they return) and (and here's the main disconnect) "a trickle of new folk". No. There's a trickle of people that come, stay for a week and go.

I don't doubt there are a few people that work their asses off. I just don't see people flocking to tear the results out of their busy hands. I don't see people waiting eagerly for Perl6 to get into a (for them) useful state.

Within the echo chamber of #perl6 it certainly looks like there's a lot going on, like there's a lot of life in the project. Outside, strange noises are heard from time to time. Perl Incorporated built a shiny new hall, right next to the main gate, built a highway to ship the planned project, made press releases and superbowl ads ... and failed to deliver anything. The hall is no longer shiny, the highway was partly reused and partly fell into pieces, but in the furthest corner of the huge building, there are three offices and a kitchen still inhabited and from time to time a bunch of school kids comes for an excursion.

Yep, the groundwork may end up being useful (though the choice of JVM will probably never cease to surprise me). Hopefully.

Jenda
Enoch was right!
Enjoy the last years of Rome.

"a trickle of new folk". No. There's a trickle of people that come, stay for a week and go.

The following folk are examples of the trickle that you don't see that I do. These are from yesterday's #perl6 log. In order of appearance:

• timotimo first spoke on #perl6 Jan 2012. He began making commits this year. Some of these are visible via a search of #perl6 for dalek tracking of Timo Paulssen commits to selected repos.

• labster first spoke on #perl6 December 2012. He's been landing commits since the same month. Some of these are visible via a search of #perl6 for dalek tracking of Brent Labs commits to selected repos.

• FROGGS first spoke on #perl6 August 2012. He began making commits in September. Some of these are visible via a search of #perl6 dalek for tracking of Tobias Leich commits to selected repos.

• lizmat first spoke on #perl6 August 2012. She's been landing commits since the same month. Some of these are visible via a search of #perl6 for dalek tracking of Elizabeth Mattijsen commits to selected repos.

• not_gerd first spoke on #perl6 November 2011. He's been landing commits since March 2012. Some of these are visible via a search of #perl6 for dalek tracking of Gerhard R commits to selected repos.

Searching through other days will reveal more such folk. Like I said, a trickle. But not zero.

I just don't see people flocking to tear the results out of their busy hands. I don't see people waiting eagerly for Perl6 to get into a (for them) useful state.

Coders are, quite rightly, not interested in using P6 until it's ready for them, and it isn't ready for most coders, even adventurous, early adopter types. Similarly, the P6 project is, quite rightly, not making any attempt to attract users because it isn't ready for most coders.

Aiui there is still $100K waiting in a bank account (part of the Hague Grant) to be spent when the time is right for raising money to promote P6. My guess is that that process will start once Larry declares a 6.0.0 spec.

It's very hard to predict when that will be, but I've been consistent about my prediction (late 2014) for the last 4 years and it still looks about right to me.

the choice of JVM will probably never cease to surprise me

Are you aware the design choice was made in the late 90s, before P6 was conceived? Do you know what the rationale for implementing it now is?

the celebrity tell-all of the Perl-6 cult

have a nice day :)