ran cpanm with -v and got the same log output.

wget and curl are both working in the shell, so I don't know what's to be gained by running them under debug.

I've also tried it with the --curl / --wget / --lwp flags and it always fails.

I just went through the docs, and noticed that I can add --no-curl, --no-wget or --no-lwp options. The first two still fail, but --no-lwp works! Talk about non-intuitive :D

So, I had a thought, and updated LWP:

Updated LWP, but still doesn't resolve the issue. At least it works now, but I don't know why. Just as long as I include the --no-lwp flag. Bizarre.