in reply to My project estimates are based on:

I carefully analyze the requirements which, based on a gut feeling (and personal assessment of the customer) I add to $day_of_week months and $day_of_month days, adding the amount of overtime I need to pay for my next vacation, pulling some numbers out of the air and multiplying them by a fair dice roll. Then I double that and scale up by some random numbers I pull out of thin air.

Tada! Estimate