There is no form #2 on your login page. I recommend you to rewrite your code like this:

$mech->get($url);
my $usr = "asdf"; #marked out for post
my $pw = "asdffgg";
$mech->submit_form (
    with_fields => {

        login_name => $usr,
        user_password => $pw,
    },
);
[download]

Also there is no need to use follow_link with absolute URL just use get